McCarthy's 19 Giants Dropbacks Are Too Few to Separate Him From Winston or a League-Average Passer

Jameis Winston has 178 dropbacks for the Giants this season. J.J. McCarthy has 19, all in the fourth quarter of the 34-27 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 18, all with the Giants trailing and with their win probability no higher than 14% at the snap. GiantsGator re-weighted Winston's dropbacks to McCarthy's mix of score situations: trailing by 17 or more, trailing by 9 to 16, and within 8. Weighted that way, Winston averaged minus-0.31 expected points added (EPA) per dropback and a 42% success rate. McCarthy averaged plus-0.43 and 63%. A league-average dropback weighted the same way was worth plus-0.03, with a 46% success rate.

The match is loose, and neither number separates from the league's. Winston's within-8 band includes 64 dropbacks when he led or was tied; all four of McCarthy's came trailing by 7. Counting only Winston's 45 dropbacks while trailing by 1 to 8, which averaged plus-0.21, puts his weighted figure at about minus-0.26. Thirty-seven percent of the weight sits on Winston's 14 dropbacks trailing by 17 or more, which averaged minus-0.86. For Winston's weighted figure, a 95% bootstrap interval, the range in which resampling the plays 20,000 times says the true figure likely falls, runs from minus-0.74 to plus-0.08, which includes the league's plus-0.03. McCarthy's runs from minus-0.41 to plus-1.21, wide enough to include a below-average passer and an elite one. Take away his three biggest plays, completions of 49, 24 and 46 yards, and his other 16 dropbacks averaged minus-0.08. Across all 107 of Winston's dropbacks with the Giants trailing, unweighted, he averaged minus-0.01.

Who took the snaps

Winston has played in five of the Giants' six games. Jaxson Dart started Weeks 1 and 2; Winston replaced him after the Giants' first possession at the Rams in Week 2 and started Weeks 3 through 6. McCarthy, acquired from Minnesota on Sept. 28, had no dropbacks before Week 6. His Week 5 snaps at Washington included two designed runs and two passes wiped out by penalties. In Week 6 he took over for the drive that began with 11:31 left, the Giants down 34-10; his first snap came at 11:25. His only earlier Week 6 snap was a 2-yard loss on a second-quarter run.

McCarthy's 19 dropbacks are 17 pass attempts, one sack and one 28-yard scramble. The official box score credits him with 21 attempts; four were spikes, which this count excludes, as it excludes two two-point tries.

The full ledger

Winston throws downfield more than almost any qualifying passer; his 9.2-yard average depth of target ranks third. He completes his passes at the lowest rate relative to expectation of the 26, 7.5 percentage points below what the model expects. Next Gen Stats' own version of the measure puts him at minus-6.2, also last among its qualifiers. He averaged plus-0.15 and plus-0.24 EPA per dropback against Arizona and Washington and minus-0.57, minus-0.18 and minus-0.40 in his other three games.

McCarthy's 2025 season with the Vikings, our baseline for him, ranked near the bottom of the league in five of six columns. His 17 Week 6 attempts are the only evidence since.

Matched by score

McCarthy's four one-score dropbacks all came on the final drive, with the Giants down 34-27 and 57 seconds left: the scramble, completions of 20 and 9 yards, and the fourth-and-1 incompletion from the Saints 14. Four dropbacks are too few to compare with Winston's 109 within 8 points. The closest matched sample is second-half dropbacks with the Giants down 9 or more: Winston's 46 averaged minus-0.11 EPA with a 50% success rate, and McCarthy's 15 averaged plus-0.52 with a 60% success rate.

League-wide this season, dropbacks with the offense's win probability under 10% have not produced inflated EPA: they averaged 0.00, against plus-0.05 between 10% and 90%. In that same win-probability band, Winston's 28 dropbacks averaged minus-0.18 and McCarthy's 16 averaged plus-0.57. That baseline does not account for how one defense played one game, and the comparison rests on 16 McCarthy dropbacks.

Pressure

Winston has turned 39.5% of his pressures into sacks, fourth highest among 29 passers with 100 or more attempts. McCarthy's 2025 rate was 35.1%. Against New Orleans he was pressured twice.

Points per drive

McCarthy's five drives produced two touchdowns, a field goal, an interception and a turnover on downs. Winston's six drives in the same kind of hole produced a touchdown, a field goal, two punts, an interception and a turnover on downs. Across all 55 of his drives, the Giants scored 1.55 points per possession, about half a point below the league's 2.07.

The Giants have not named a Week 7 starter as of 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday. Giants coach John Harbaugh said at his Monday news conference, "We're working through that now, honing in on a decision." The Giants play at Houston on Sunday.

Play video: SNY's clip of coach John Harbaugh's Oct. 19 news conference, in which he said the Giants had not yet decided between Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy as their starter for Week 7 at Houston.

How we counted: A dropback is any non-penalty play nflverse flags as a quarterback dropback (pass attempts, sacks and scrambles), excluding spikes and two-point tries. EPA and success rate come from nflverse's expected-points model; a play is a success when its EPA is positive. CPOE uses nflverse's completion model on attempts with charted air yards. Score and win probability are measured before the snap. The bootstrap intervals resample McCarthy's 19 dropbacks, and Winston's dropbacks within each score band, 20,000 times. Turnover-worthy play rate is not included; it is Pro Football Focus subscription charting, which GiantsGator did not have access to for this piece.