J.J. McCarthy's Vikings Numbers Point to More Under-Center and Play-Action Snaps for Giants at Houston
The Vikings lined up under center on 46.6% of plays in J.J. McCarthy's 2025 starts, about the Giants' rate with Jaxson Dart and 9 percentage points above their rate with Jameis Winston. Three Giants tackles missed practice Wednesday.
The Giants' offense with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback is likely to look more like the one they ran with Jaxson Dart on the field this season than the one they ran with Jameis Winston. In McCarthy's 10 starts for Minnesota last season, the Vikings lined up under center on 46.6% of their plays and used play-action on 28.2% of his dropbacks. With Dart on the field this season, the Giants' rates were 47.2% and 28.9%. With Winston, they were 37.6% and 20.2%.
Coach John Harbaugh named McCarthy the starter for Sunday's game at Houston on Wednesday. At his Wednesday news conference, he said the plan had been "tailored a little more toward his direction" and that "there are types of plays, probably, that will be more in J.J.'s world that weren't as quite as much in Jameis's world." Asked whether the plan would be exactly like the one for the Week 1 win over Dallas, he said, "I wouldn't say specifically like it, but there's elements." Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said at his Thursday news conference that McCarthy's "skill set is very similar to Jaxson (Dart)," ESPN's Jordan Raanan posted. The New York Daily News' Pat Leonard reported that Nagy described a McCarthy section on his Week 5 call sheet at Washington that kept 50% of the offense available if McCarthy had to finish the game, a share that rose to 90% for the Week 6 game against New Orleans.
The offense around each quarterback
| With this QB on the field | Games | Plays | Team designed-run share | Under center | Play-action share of dropbacks | Early-down neutral pass rate (plays) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dart, Giants 2026 | 2 | 72 | 47.2% | 47.2% | 28.9% | 51.6% (31) |
| Winston, Giants 2026 | 5 | 287 | 38.0% | 37.6% | 20.2% | 47.3% (110) |
| McCarthy, Giants 2026 | 2 | 26 | 26.9% | 3.8% | 0.0% | - (0) |
| McCarthy, Vikings 2025 | 10 | 485 | 40.8% | 46.6% | 28.2% | 52.6% (251) |
| Wentz, Vikings 2025 | 5 | 284 | 30.6% | 35.6% | 22.8% | 56.4% (101) |
| NFL average, 2026 | - | - | 38.7% | 38.1% | 23.1% | 53.9% |
The Dart sample is one full game and one drive, 72 plays. Minnesota's under-center rate rose with McCarthy. In the five games Carson Wentz quarterbacked in coach Kevin O'Connell's offense last season, the Vikings lined up under center on 35.6% of their plays.
Play-action did not make McCarthy more productive last season. On his 81 play-action dropbacks he averaged minus-0.23 expected points added (EPA), a measure of how much each play changed the offense's expected scoring, and minus-0.12 on his 206 other dropbacks. Winston has averaged minus-0.02 on 36 play-action dropbacks this season and minus-0.09 on 142 others.
The quarterbacks, side by side
| Measure | McCarthy, Vikings 2025 | Winston, Giants 2026 | Dart, Giants 2026 | McCarthy, Giants 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 starts | 5 (4 starts) | 2 starts | 2, in relief |
| Dropbacks | 287 | 178 | 38 | 19 |
| Designed runs, no sneaks | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| Scramble rate | 5.9% (17) | 2.8% (5) | 5.3% (2) | 5.3% (1) |
| Average depth of target | 8.8 yards | 9.2 yards | 8.6 yards | 14.8 yards |
| Time to throw (NGS) | 3.02 sec. (243 att.) | 2.64 sec. (158 att.) | 2.64 sec. (Week 1, 29 att.) | 2.85 sec. (21 att.) |
| Pressured (PFR) | 26.5% | 21.3% | 15.8% | 8.7% |
McCarthy's mobility in Minnesota showed up more in scrambles than in called runs. He had six designed runs that were not quarterback sneaks in 10 starts, for 33 yards, and 17 scrambles. Dart had four designed runs for 46 yards in the Week 1 win over Dallas alone. Winston has had none in five games; his four called runs were all sneaks.
At his Wednesday news conference, McCarthy listed "holding the backside player" and "carrying out your keeper fakes on wide zone stuff" among the things he adds to the run game. On a keeper fake, the quarterback fakes a bootleg after the handoff.
What the Giants have called for him
None of McCarthy's 19 Giants dropbacks came from under center or used play-action. The one under-center snap with him on the field was a Tyrone Tracy Jr. run. At Washington in Week 5, the play-by-play lists him on four snaps: two designed runs for 2 yards and two completions wiped out by penalties. Against New Orleans he lost 2 yards on a second-quarter run. All 19 of his dropbacks came in the fourth quarter with the Giants trailing by at least 7. The Giants' win probability was never higher than 6% at the start of any of his drives. He completed all six passes the NFL play-by-play charts as deep, 15 or more air yards, as our film review found.
Protection
McCarthy's 3.02-second average time to throw in 2025 was the fourth-longest among 42 qualifying passers in Next Gen Stats data. Winston's 2.64 seconds this season is the fifth-quickest of 36. McCarthy was pressured on 26.5% of his dropbacks last season, fourth-highest among 33 passers with at least 238 attempts, by Pro Football Reference's charting. Winston has been pressured on 21.3%.
Andrew Thomas (groin), Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) and Marcus Mbow (knee) did not practice Wednesday. Mbow played all 77 snaps at right tackle against New Orleans with Eluemunor inactive. The Giants signed offensive lineman Josh Sills off Indianapolis' practice squad Wednesday. Harbaugh said, "There's no indication that any of the tackles are long term."
Houston has 18 sacks, 7.5 of them by Will Anderson Jr., and sends five or more rushers on 23.0% of opponents' dropbacks. The league rate is 31.7%, and Houston's rose to 37.2% in Week 6, Texans coach DeMeco Ryans' second game calling the defense. Opponents have averaged minus-0.10 EPA on 53 play-action dropbacks against the Texans, sixth-best in the league, and plus-0.11 on the rest.
Houston has faced few quarterback runs this season. In six games, the Texans have faced two designed quarterback runs that were not sneaks, both by Buffalo's Josh Allen in Week 1, for 2 yards, and seven scrambles for 43 yards.
The backfield
Cam Skattebo had 12 to 20 carries in each of the Giants' first five games and none against New Orleans. Harbaugh said after the game that it was not by design. The Giants released Najee Harris on Oct. 20, leaving Skattebo, Devin Singletary and Tracy as the running backs. Houston has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the league.
With Winston at quarterback, the Giants threw on 47.3% of early-down plays in neutral game situations, below the league's 53.9%, so Skattebo's zero carries in Week 6 were not part of a season-long shift away from the run.
The Giants' next injury report is due later Thursday. Kickoff at Houston is 1 p.m. ET Sunday on Fox.
How we counted: Play-by-play figures are from nflverse, regular season only, with two-point tries, kneel-downs and spikes excluded. A dropback is any play nflverse flags as a quarterback dropback: pass attempts, sacks and scrambles. A designed quarterback run is a called run by the quarterback that was not a scramble, an aborted snap or a sneak; sneaks are identified by FTN charting. Under-center, play-action and pass-rusher counts are FTN charting published through nflverse. "With this QB on the field" assigns every play in a drive to the quarterback who took that drive's snaps. Early-down neutral pass rate counts first- and second-down plays in the first three quarters with the offense's win probability between 20% and 80%. Average depth of target is nflverse air yards on pass attempts. Time to throw is Next Gen Stats. Pressure figures are Pro Football Reference; a pressure includes hurries, hits and sacks.