Giants Allow Touchdowns on Half of Opponents' Third-Quarter Drives; Two Comeback Bids Produced 24 of 54 Fourth-Quarter Points
The Giants are 4-0 when leading or tied after three quarters and 0-2-1 when trailing. Five of their seven games were within one score with five minutes left; only Cleveland has had more.
The Giants have scored 54 fourth-quarter points through seven games, 13th in the NFL per game. Twenty-four of those points, counting the tries that followed, came on scoring plays that began when the nflverse win-probability model gave the Giants less than a 10% chance to win. Only Las Vegas has scored more that way. The third quarter is their weakest. Their defense has allowed 0.27 expected points added per play in it, 30th in the NFL.
Expected points added (EPA) measures how much a play changed a team's expected scoring. Success rate is the share of plays with positive EPA. The figures below use every run and dropback from the nflverse play-by-play through Week 7, including plays wiped out by penalties, with kneel-downs, spikes and two-point tries removed. Win probability is the nflverse model's figure at the snap.
By quarter
The Giants are 4-2-1 and have outscored opponents 163-161. The first half is close to even, 72-74. In the second half the Giants are minus-14 in the third quarter and plus-12 in the fourth.
| Quarter | Points for | Points against | Offense EPA/play (rank) | Offense success (rank) | Defense EPA/play (rank) | Defense success (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First | 30 | 30 | -0.02 (16) | 33.3% (32) | -0.09 (12) | 39.8% (13) |
| Second | 42 | 44 | -0.05 (24) | 44.7% (15) | -0.06 (6) | 34.4% (5) |
| Third | 31 | 45 | 0.01 (18) | 42.6% (16) | 0.27 (30) | 57.0% (31) |
| Fourth | 54 | 42 | 0.12 (7) | 49.1% (4) | -0.02 (13) | 44.3% (15) |
| Overtime | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
Opponents have succeeded on 57% of their third-quarter plays against the Giants, 31st in the league. With the game in the 10%-90% win-probability range, the Giants' third-quarter defense ranks last in both EPA per play and success rate.
Opponents had 14 drives that began in the third quarter, and seven ended in touchdowns. The league rate is 27%. The Giants' 50% ranks 30th, tied with Detroit. The Giants have allowed 6.4 third-quarter points per game, 26th.
In Week 6, New Orleans scored on all three of its third-quarter possessions, two touchdowns and a field goal, and a 10-10 game became 27-10. In Week 5, both of Washington's drives that began in the third quarter ended in touchdowns, the second on a 26-yard Jayden Daniels scramble early in the fourth.
The first-quarter offense's 33.3% success rate is last in the league. Its EPA per play matches the league average, and its 4.3 points per game rank 17th.
After three quarters
| Week | Opponent | Score entering the fourth | Fourth quarter | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas | 21-14 | 7-6 | — | W, 28-20 |
| 2 | at Rams | 6-21 | 0-7 | — | L, 28-6 |
| 3 | Tennessee | 12-0 | 0-7 | — | W, 12-7 |
| 4 | Arizona | 27-24 | 9-0 | — | W, 36-24 |
| 5 | at Washington | 13-19 | 14-8 | 0-0 | T, 27-27 (OT) |
| 6 | New Orleans | 10-27 | 17-7 | — | L, 34-27 |
| 7 | at Houston | 14-14 | 7-7 | 6-0 | W, 27-21 (OT) |
The Giants won all three games they led after three quarters and the one they were tied. They are 0-2-1 in the three they trailed. Across the league this season, teams trailing after three quarters have won 18 of 102 games and tied one. Teams trailing by nine or more have won 2 of 47. The Giants trailed by 15 and 17 entering the fourth in their two losses.
Five of their seven games were within one score with five minutes left in regulation. Only Cleveland, with six, has had more.
Fourth-quarter deficits
The Giants have erased one fourth-quarter deficit, and the game ended in a tie. Washington led 27-13 with 11:05 left in Week 5. Jameis Winston hit Isaiah Likely for a 17-yard touchdown on fourth-and-8. The play was ruled a fumble and touchback on the field and reversed on replay. The Giants' win probability at that snap was 3.8%. Winston's 17-yard touchdown pass to Malik Nabers with 1:43 left and the extra point by Dominic Zvada tied it. In overtime, Zvada missed from 46 yards, and Cam Skattebo lost a fumble at the Washington 24 with two minutes left. The game ended 27-27.
New Orleans led 34-10 with 11:31 left in Week 6. The Giants scored 17 points on a 5-yard touchdown run by Tyrone Tracy Jr. and a two-point pass from J.J. McCarthy to Likely, a 24-yard touchdown pass from McCarthy to Likely, and a 41-yard Zvada field goal with just over two minutes left. Their win probability at those three scoring snaps was 0.1%, 2.5% and 3.7%. The last drive reached the Saints' 14, where McCarthy's fourth-and-1 pass fell incomplete with 12 seconds left. The model never gave the Giants better than a 16.4% chance on that drive. Our Week 6 film review covered McCarthy's drives in that game.
Those two games account for all 24 of the fourth-quarter points the Giants scored below 10% win probability. The league median is 7. In the fourth quarter with win probability between 10% and 90%, the Giants have scored 23 points, 20th in the league and tied with Indianapolis; the league average is about 26. Their fourth-quarter offense averages 0.21 EPA per play below 10% win probability. In the 10%-90% range it averages 0.06, 15th in the league.
The wins
Three of the Giants' four wins were decided in the final minute or overtime, and two were sealed by interceptions in the last 30 seconds.
The Giants led Dallas by at least seven points throughout the fourth quarter in Week 1.
In Week 3, the Giants led Tennessee 12-0 entering the fourth and 12-7 after a Titans touchdown with about 5 1/2 minutes left. Tennessee had first-and-goal at the Giants' 7 when Jevon Holland intercepted Cam Ward in the end zone with 24 seconds left.
In Week 4, the Giants led Arizona 27-24 entering the fourth, and Zvada's 52-yard field goal made it 30-24 with just over two minutes left. A pass interference penalty on Deonte Banks gave Arizona first-and-goal at the 4, and Jacoby Brissett threw three straight incompletions. Banks picked off the fourth-down pass at the 2 and ran it back 98 yards for a touchdown on the game's final snap.
In Week 7, the Giants and Houston were tied 14-14 entering the fourth. Skattebo's 16-yard touchdown run put the Giants ahead 21-14 with about nine minutes left, and C.J. Stroud's 3-yard touchdown pass to Xavier Hutchinson tied it in the final minute. Houston went three-and-out to open overtime, and Devin Singletary won it with a 30-yard touchdown run.
In fourth quarters played between 10% and 90% win probability, the Giants' defense has allowed minus-0.20 EPA per play, fifth in the league.
General manager Joe Schoen credited the strength and conditioning staff for the team's fourth-quarter and overtime results at his bye-week news conference Tuesday, Oct. 27. "They did a phenomenal job through camp and through the season, making sure we hit our numbers at practice," Schoen said.
The Giants return from their bye at Philadelphia on Sunday, Nov. 8.