Giants-Texans Preview: Teams Home From Europe Without a Bye Are 12-8-1 Since 2013
Teams back from Europe without a bye have finished close to the point spread since 2013. The Giants, 10-point underdogs in J.J. McCarthy's first start for them, have scored 1.43 points per drive on the road.
Houston plays the Giants one week after beating Jacksonville 34-31 at Wembley Stadium, with no bye in between. Since 2013, teams have come back from a regular-season game in Europe and played at home the next week, without a bye, 21 times. They went 12-8-1, by our count from nflverse schedule data, and on average they finished within half a point of the closing spread.
The Giants (3-2-1) play the Texans (2-4) at 1 p.m. EDT Sunday in Houston on Fox, with Adam Amin and Drew Brees on the call. The game streams on NFL+, and the radio call is on WFAN. Houston was a 10-point favorite Saturday on ESPN's odds page, with an over-under of 42.5. Both teams have their bye in Week 8.
The week after Europe
We counted every regular-season game played outside the United States from 2013 through 2025, in London, Germany, Madrid, Dublin, Mexico City, São Paulo and Toronto, and looked at each team's next game. Thirty-six times, a team played again the following week instead of having a bye. In three of those, the next game was also overseas, and we left them out.
The other 33 teams went 18-15 and outscored their opponents 730-679. The closing line had favored them by 2.0 points on average. They won by 1.6, and they covered the spread 16 times in 33 games.
Houston's spot is narrower: back from Europe, at home, no bye. Counting only games in Europe and adding this season, 21 teams have been there. They went 12-8-1 and outscored opponents 500-466. The line expected them to win by 2.0 points on average, and they won by 1.6. They covered nine times and failed to cover 12. Through 2025, before this season's two cases, those teams were 12-7 and had beaten the line by two-tenths of a point. Across all home teams from 2013 through 2025, the average margin was 1.9 points and the average closing line was 1.9.
Twenty-one games is a small sample. It cannot rule out an effect of a few points in either direction. It shows no sign of a large one, and none beyond what the betting market already priced in.
Covers' early preview listed the flight home without a bye as a hurdle for Houston. From 2013 through 2025, teams that did get a bye after a European game fared no better: 28-34, 1.2 points per game worse than the line, across 62 games.
The Giants have been on both sides of this. In 2022 they beat Green Bay 27-22 in London, and both teams played at home the next week. The Giants beat Baltimore 24-20 as 5.5-point underdogs. The Packers lost 27-10 to the Jets as 7.5-point favorites. In 2023, Buffalo came home from London and beat the Giants 14-9 as a 15.5-point favorite. In Week 5 this season, Washington came home from London and tied the Giants 27-27 as a 3.5-point favorite.
Houston has been worse at home than away this season. The Texans are 0-3 at home and 2-1 elsewhere, including London. Their defense has allowed 2.57 points per drive in Houston and 1.83 in its other three games.
The Giants on the road
The Giants are 0-1-1 on the road: a 28-6 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2 and a 27-27 tie at Washington in Week 5. Their offense has scored 33 points on 23 road drives, 1.43 per drive. That ranks 27th of 32 among road offenses, with neutral-site games left out. Road offenses league-wide have averaged 2.04.
At home the Giants have scored 2.16 points per drive, 97 points on 45 drives. That was 2.33 before the 34-27 loss to New Orleans, when they scored 27 points on 15 drives. Jaxson Dart left the Rams game after seven snaps, so most of the road sample came with Jameis Winston at quarterback.
On defense, the Giants have allowed 2.29 points per drive on the road and 1.89 at home.
McCarthy and the offensive line
Giants coach John Harbaugh named J.J. McCarthy the Week 7 starter on Wednesday. Winston is the backup, and Jake Haener is the emergency third quarterback. McCarthy replaced Winston with 11:25 left in the fourth quarter against New Orleans and threw for 243 yards. Our Thursday breakdown covers how the offense changed with him in Minnesota and what it could look like Sunday.
SNY posted video of Harbaugh explaining the decision Wednesday.
Left tackle Andrew Thomas (groin) has no game designation. Offensive linemen Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) and Marcus Mbow (knee) are questionable on the final injury report. All three missed Wednesday's practice and were limited Thursday and Friday. Asked Friday about Thomas and Eluemunor, Harbaugh said "they should have a good chance to be ready to go." The Giants signed lineman Josh Sills off Indianapolis' practice squad Wednesday.
The line would face Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Harbaugh called them "two of the best in the league, two of the most high energy." Houston's defense has 18 sacks.
Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder) and cornerback Greg Newsome II (concussion) are out. Tight end Theo Johnson (neck) is doubtful. Safeties Jevon Holland (concussion) and Tyler Nubin (neck) are questionable. Cornerback Paulson Adebo (knee) is questionable and still on injured reserve. His practice window opened Wednesday.
Houston ruled out running back David Montgomery (groin), tackle Blake Fisher (thumb) and safeties Reed Blankenship and Jalen Pitre. Receiver Tank Dell (knee) is questionable after practicing fully all week. He has not played since Dec. 21, 2024.
Keys to the game
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has not been sacked in 56 dropbacks against five or more rushers this season, and he has averaged 8.8 yards per attempt on them, as our scouting report laid out. All 14 sacks he has taken came against four or fewer. Houston did not allow a sack in London.
The Giants send five or more rushers on 41.8% of opponent dropbacks, fifth-highest in the league. They did it on 17 of 32 dropbacks against New Orleans. Houston's defense sends five or more on 23.0%, below the league rate of 31.7%.
The Giants play at Philadelphia on Nov. 8 after the bye. They lead the NFC East; Dallas and Philadelphia are 2-4 and Washington is 1-4-1.