Giants-Texans Film Review: J.J. McCarthy Gets 152 of His 252 Yards on 5 Throws
Houston sent five or more rushers on 14 of McCarthy's 30 dropbacks, twice its rate through six games, and got all three of its sacks on those plays. The Giants lined up under center less often than they had with Jameis Winston.
Published Thursday, Oct. 29. The game was Sunday, Oct. 25.
Five completions by J.J. McCarthy in the Giants' 27-21 overtime win at Houston added 14.3 expected points, more than the 5.4 his 30 dropbacks added in total. Expected points added (EPA) is the nflverse measure of how much a play changed the offense's expected scoring. His other 25 dropbacks, including three sacks, averaged minus-0.36. The running backs, who had 81 yards on 20 carries through three quarters, gained 99 on eight carries in the fourth quarter and overtime, and two of those carries were touchdowns.
McCarthy finished 20 of 28, including a spike, for 252 yards in his first Giants start, with no touchdown passes, no interceptions and three sacks for 20 yards.
The drives
The Giants had 11 possessions. Four ended in touchdowns, two in missed field goals by Dominic Zvada, from 56 and 44 yards, four in punts, and one at the end of regulation. Every possession began with the game within one score, and the Giants' win probability at the start of each, by the nflverse model, was between 43% and 89%. In Week 6, McCarthy's five drives all began with the Giants down by at least 7 and a win probability no higher than 6%, as our film review found.
| Start | Score | Win prob. | Plays | EPA/play | Success | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:32, own 34 | Down 3-0 | 43% | 9 | +0.61 | 56% | TD |
| Q1 5:17, own 23 | Up 7-3 | 65% | 6 | -0.06 | 17% | Missed FG, 56 |
| Q2 14:50, own 23 | Up 7-3 | 65% | 3 | -0.69 | 0% | Punt |
| Q2 8:59, own 22 | Up 7-6 | 57% | 9 | +0.61 | 67% | TD |
| Q2 0:29, own 43 | Tied 14-14 | 53% | 3 | +0.47 | 33% | Missed FG, 44 |
| Q3 14:53, own 30 | Tied 14-14 | 47% | 8 | -0.13 | 25% | Punt |
| Q3 8:05, own 31 | Tied 14-14 | 47% | 3 | -0.82 | 0% | Punt |
| Q3 2:13, own 20 | Tied 14-14 | 46% | 14 | +0.45 | 57% | TD |
| Q4 6:45, own 24 | Up 21-14 | 89% | 3 | -0.97 | 0% | Punt |
| Q4 0:46, own 20 | Tied 21-21 | 52% | 3 | -0.10 | 0% | End of regulation |
| OT 8:54, own 19 | Tied 21-21 | 51% | 3 | +2.05 | 100% | TD |
Over 64 runs and dropbacks, the offense averaged plus-0.24 EPA per play, and 40.6% of plays gained positive expected points, the definition of success used here. On McCarthy's dropbacks the success rate was 30%: 9 of 30.
Those five completions were a 47-yard catch-and-run by Malachi Fields on second-and-17, a 42-yard ball to Malik Nabers, a 29-yarder to Thomas Fidone II, a 20-yarder to Fields on third-and-4 and a 14-yarder to Fields on third-and-9. Fields had 83 yards on four catches and Nabers 111 on seven.
Measured against our Oct. 22 piece
On the measures our Oct. 22 offense piece used, Sunday's game looked like this:
- Designed runs and scrambles: none. McCarthy's only run was a quarterback sneak on third-and-2 that gained 1 yard.
- Quarterback sneaks by Jameis Winston: four, on third-and-1, twice at the Houston 1 and on fourth-and-1. Three gained a first down or a touchdown, including the 1-yard touchdown that, with the extra point, put the Giants up 14-6 in the second quarter.
- Play-action: 6 of 30 dropbacks, 20.0%. That matches the Giants' rate with Winston this season (20.2%) and is below the Vikings' 28.2% in McCarthy's 10 starts in 2025.
- Under center: 21 of 64 plays, 32.8%, five of them sneaks. Without the sneaks, 27.1%. The Giants were under center on 37.2% of plays with Winston this season, and the Vikings on 46.6% in McCarthy's starts. In Week 6, none of McCarthy's 19 dropbacks came from under center or used play-action. On Sunday, five came from under center and six used play-action.
- Deep passes, as the NFL play-by-play charts them: 4 of 8 for 118 yards. On throws of 20 or more air yards, he was 2 of 6 for 69 yards. His average depth of target was 9.9 yards.
Houston sent five or more pass rushers on 14 of McCarthy's 30 dropbacks, 46.7%. The Texans had done so on 23.0% of opponents' dropbacks through six games and 37.2% in Week 6. Against five or more, McCarthy averaged minus-0.24 EPA per dropback, with four successful plays and all three sacks. Against four or fewer rushers, he averaged plus-0.55 on 16 dropbacks. Pro Football Reference charted him as pressured on 6 of 31 dropbacks, 19.4% (Pro Football Reference's count includes the spike), with Danielle Hunter credited with three of the pressures. McCarthy was pressured on 26.5% of his dropbacks in 2025.
Three plays
These are described from the NFL play-by-play and FTN charting published through nflverse.
Second quarter, 5:00, first-and-10 at the Houston 30, Giants up 7-6. From under center, on a play-action fake, with seven Texans rushing, McCarthy threw deep left to Fidone for 29 yards to the 1. Winston sneaked for the touchdown two plays later.
Fourth quarter, 9:36, third-and-9 at the Houston 30, tied 14-14. Houston rushed six. McCarthy threw short left to Fields, who was pushed out at the 16 for 14 yards. The Giants' win probability went from 53% to 62%. Cam Skattebo ran 16 yards over right guard for a touchdown on the next play, finishing a 14-play, 80-yard drive that took 8:18.
Fourth quarter, 6:00, third-and-10 at the Giants 24, up 21-14. Houston rushed seven. M.J. Stewart and Henry To'oTo'o sacked McCarthy for a 10-yard loss, and the Giants punted. Tank Dell returned it 14 yards to the Giants 48, and Houston drove 48 yards, all on the ground except a 15-yard pass to Woody Marks and C.J. Stroud's 3-yard touchdown pass to Xavier Hutchinson, to tie it with 52 seconds left.
The running backs
With Najee Harris released Oct. 20, three running backs were active. Skattebo played 37 of 66 offensive snaps, after 6 against New Orleans, and ran 17 times for 124 yards and a touchdown. Devin Singletary played 19 and ran five times for 41 yards. Tyrone Tracy Jr. played 10 and had 15 yards on six carries before he injured his hamstring with 5:10 left in the second quarter. The Giants placed him on injured reserve Oct. 27 and signed running back Gregory Desrosiers to the active roster from the Los Angeles Chargers' practice squad. Fullback Patrick Ricard played 34 snaps, after 11 in Week 6.
In overtime, Skattebo ran 42 yards up the middle on second-and-1 to the Houston 30, raising the Giants' win probability from 56% to 85%, and Singletary ran 30 yards up the middle for the winning touchdown on the next snap. Of the backs' 28 carries, 46.4% gained positive expected points. In Weeks 1-6, the figure was 31%.
In his postgame news conference, coach John Harbaugh said, "It wasn't easy yards in there. But at the end they were easier."
Snap counts
Offensive line. Andrew Thomas, Jon Runyan, Bryan Hudson, Francis Mauigoa and Jermaine Eluemunor each played all 66 offensive snaps. Thomas (groin) and Eluemunor (calf) did not practice Wednesday and were limited Thursday and Friday on the official injury report; Eluemunor was listed as questionable and Thomas had no game status. Eluemunor returned at right tackle after missing Week 6. Marcus Mbow, who played all 77 snaps there in Week 6, was questionable with a knee injury and inactive. Josh Sills, signed Oct. 21, was also inactive.
Quarterbacks and tight ends. McCarthy played 61 snaps and Winston 5; the play-by-play lists Winston on four plays, all sneaks. Isaiah Likely played 57, Chris Manhertz 29 and Fidone 7. Theo Johnson was out with a neck injury.
Defense. Tremaine Edmunds went on injured reserve with a shoulder injury Oct. 24, the day before the game, and Micah McFadden, who had two defensive snaps in the first six games, played all 61 beside Arvell Reese. Paulson Adebo, activated from injured reserve, played all 61 at cornerback in his first game since playing 10 snaps in Week 1. Jevon Holland and Greg Newsome II were out with concussions.
Going into the bye
The Giants (4-2-1) play at Philadelphia on Sunday, Nov. 8. Harbaugh did not name a quarterback for that game in his Monday session with reporters. Asked whether the Giants would try out kickers, he said, "We're not going to be doing that right now, no." He said the team would be back Monday afternoon, Nov. 2, to start on the Eagles.
How we counted: Play-by-play figures are from nflverse's 2026 play-by-play as of Oct. 30, regular season, with two-point tries, kneel-downs and spikes excluded. Expected points and win probability are the nflverse models. A dropback is any pass attempt, sack or scramble. Under-center, play-action, sneak and pass-rusher counts are FTN charting published through nflverse. Winston's under-center rate is 37.2% on the current 2026 charting, against 37.6% in our Oct. 22 piece; the difference comes from revised charting and counting since then. "With McCarthy" counts every play in the drives he quarterbacked. Snap counts are Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Pressures are Pro Football Reference.